El Nino is often associated with below average warmer, dry weather across Asia Pacific region.
The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall in some parts of the state in next 48 hours. "The southwest monsoon has arrived in Maharashtra. The onset line is passing over Harnai, Solapur, Ramagundum (Telangana) and Jagdalpur (Chhattisgarh)," IMD Mumbai centre's deputy director general K S Hosalikar said.
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gujarat, have been left out, despite a strong start to the monsoon in June
Many parts of the country have received good rainfall and others, including the capital where the monsoon has not moved in so far, woke up to pre-monsoon showers on Wednesday.
Monsoon revival over weekend likely, but second-half rainfall may be muted. If the rains become scarce after mid-August, the standing kharif crops might be impacted
Addressing a press conference virtually, India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said September was likely to witness normal rainfall in the range of 91-109 per cent of the long period average of 167.9 mm.
IMD will present its month-wise and region-wise forecast in June.
Conditions are becoming favourable for onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during next two to three days, according to India Meteorological Department in Pune.
Monsoon will hit Kerala between May 28 and 30, two-three days before its normal onset date of June 1, private forecasting agency Skymet said.
The IMD, in its onset date forecast on May 15, had said the monsoon is likely to hit the southern state on June 5, four days after its normal arrival.
The weather department said its latest model analysis had indicated that the moist easterly winds in the lower level from the Bay of Bengal would spread to northwest India, covering Punjab and Haryana by July 10, leading to the advancement of monsoon and an increase in rainfall activity over the region, including Delhi, from July 10 onwards.
With conditions not favouring its progress, southwest monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast by June 4, three days after its normal onset date, the MET department has said.
Delhi is likely to receive the first monsoon showers on June 30 or July 1, India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials said on Tuesday.
Weather watchers said it can't be known till May whether El Nio will impact the monsoon or not.
This year, the monsoon was above normal in almost all parts, except in North-West India, which comprises the major grain producing states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, along with states such as Himachal Pradesh, the NCR, Uttarakhand, and J&K.
It has also advanced into most parts of Tamil Nadu, some parts of south interior Karnataka and remaining parts of south Bay of Bengal, according to IMD.
Scientists had earlier said the cyclone pulled the moisture and convection, impacting the intensity of the monsoon and delaying its onset over Kerala.
While it hit the national capital two days before schedule, its entry into the financial capital is two weeks late, the Met office said.
The monsoon this year in India was likely to be 'below normal' at 95% of LPA: Skymet
The southwest monsoon is set to make its exit in style, bringing rains to the parched parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, as weather forecasters have picked up signs of formation of a cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal. Addressing a press conference in New Delhi, India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Thursday junked last week's forecast of early withdrawal of southwest monsoon and announced the extended stay of the seasonal showers. "Even though we expected early withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, a cyclonic circulation over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal will shift the monsoon trough southwards around September 7.
According to the IMD forecast, monsoon is likely to be normal this year.
All sub-regions have been receiving good rainfall except the North-east and east region of the country, where the deficiency has reached 23 per cent.
Between June 1 and July 28, about 32 per cent of the 685 districts in the country did not receive adequate rainfall.
Increased production of pulses, oilseeds, and cereals will help boost domestic supplies and contribute to keeping inflation low in the coming months.
After a making a slow progress, the southwest monsoon is expected to gain momentum and advance further into several parts of drought-hit Maharashtra and central India.
'Southwest Monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab and thus it has covered the entire country today, the 26th June 2020,' the IMD said in its special Daily Weather Report.
Southwest Monsoon was vigorous/active over East Rajasthan and the Gujarat region during many days and over West Rajasthan, Konkan and Goa and Madhya Maharashtra on a few days of the week ending July 11.
A depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat, is likely to move northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.
According to latest data, crops have been sown in around 72.13 million hectares, which is 8.90 per cent less than the same period last year.
Skymet says the IMD ignored the required criterion of two days of necessary rainfall to declare a proper onset of monsoon, reports Sanjeeb Mukherjee.
Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to see muted topline growth, with uneven spread of the monsoon impacting demand. Rural demand recovery, too, remains elusive in the July-September quarter. Brokerages expect volumes to remain steady in the quarter on a sequential basis.
This may rescue pulses, cotton and oilseed sowing; rain revival in the south to take longer
Several deaths were reported across the country due to rain-related incidents like lightning strikes and drowning.
Normally, monsoon reaches Delhi by June 27. It covers the entire country by July 8. Last year, the wind system had reached Delhi on June 25 and covered the entire country by June 29.
India's GDP is likely to grow at 6.5 to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year amid global challenges which may impact exports, said Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. The growth projected for 2024-25 is lower than the economic growth rate of 8.2 per cent estimated for the previous financial year. The Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2025 at 7.2 per cent.
"Conditions are favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala and its further advance into some more parts of south Arabian sea, remaining parts of Maldives - Comorin area, some parts of Tamil Nadu and some more parts of Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours," said a statement by the Indian Meteorological Department.
After becoming active over the rice-growing Indo-Gangetic plains, the southwest monsoon might witness weak phase for the next 3-4 days over the already rain-deficient region. So far, the main deficit states are Uttar Pradesh (-42 per cent), Bihar (-36 per cent), Jharkhand (-48 per cent), and West Bengal (-24 per cent). According to private weather forecasting agency Skymet, rains in west UP, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, and Jharkhand are expected to be weak in the next 3-4 days before again picking pace.
The southwest monsoon over the country is likely to be normal in July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday in its forecast for the month.
The Indian Meteorology Department also predicted some respite from the severe heat wave prevailing in several parts of the country.
Usually, the annual monsoon forecast is released around mid-April.
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